Blog post predicted number of RP COVID 19 cases – 300 by week ended March 21; still to happen is 1000 total cases by week ending March 28

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A March 15, 2020 blog post predicted 300 to 400 COVID 19 confirmed cases in the Philippines by the end of the week (March 21) and 1000 cases by the end of next week (March 28). The March 21 prediction has already happened with 307 confirmed cases reported by the Department of Health. Would the 1000 confirmed predicted also come true by March 28, 2020? We have to average 100 (a figure already mentioned in the March 15 article) new confirmed cases a day to reach the March 28 prediction. In all probability at this stage of the spread of the disease, the Philippines will be hitting 100 new cases per day. The mathematical model being used here is called doubling time. We are assuming that the spread of the disease will double every week. This simply means that if we get to the 100 cases per day level ending March 28, then the next week (ending April 4) we may be getting 200 cases per day. In terms of total number of cases to date, the week ending March 21 had 300 cases, the week ending March 28 will have 1000 predicted cases and the week ending April 4 will have 2400 predicted confirmed cases.

Using the same projection, we could be hitting 400 cases a day in the week ending April 11 and 800 cases a day in the week ending April 18. These would translate to roughly 5000 cases by April 11 and more than 10000 cases by April 18. 

We can project the figures until a majority of the Filipino people have been infected, many have died and, hopefully, more have recovered. The end of the virus is when there are no more Filipinos to infect (many in the rural areas may be spared if they isolate themselves from the urban folks). Far flung cities and municipalities may also be spared due to lack of contact with the rampaging virus. 

Now that we know the worst case scenario, what can stop the natural spread of the virus. For one, it is claimed that COVID 19 does not survive long in high temperature. Now that we are at the start of summer and things begin to heat up, we are hopeful that fewer infections would occur. Two, the full effects of the massive Metro Manila lockdown or community quarantine has already reduced people to people contact which should result in lower new cases per day reported.

So the question is will things get worse before they get better? Probably. The number of new cases confirmed per day is the best indicator. If it keeps rising, then we are in big trouble (as if we are not there already). No huge growth for a few days may signal stabilization while smaller numbers per day compared to the previous high may indicate some sort of control (unless it explodes in another part of the country).


COVID 19 – The Metro Manila SURVIVAL RACE against TIME 

With the number of Philippine COVID 19 cases breaching the 100 mark (140 at latest count) and the number of deaths at 11, a disturbing development has now happened. The Philippine Heart Center had a COVID 19 mortality and as a result 39 of its staff are under quarantine. The PHC Medical Director announced that no new patient admissions would be entertained until the hospital gets back into full (or at least more manageable) personnel strength. Considering that in the past 24 hours, there were 47 announced new confirmed cases (from 64 to 111), today the Department of Health added another 29 confirmed cases bringing the total to 140, it is very clear that more cases are now being diagnosed per day. Should this 50 something new cases per day persist for next week then it would be easy to calculate a 200 confirmed cases level at the start of the week and possibly 300 to 400 confirmed COVID 19 cases at the end of the week. This level is bound to take its toll on the big Metro Manila hospitals when their own physicians, nurses, med techs, rad techs, physical therapists, aides, orderlies, janitors and security guards begin (as it has already begun) to become patients themselves. Should the Philippine confirmed cases growth curve follow those exhibited by China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, France and Spain then we may be seeing 100 new cases confirmed per day starting 7 days from today. In other words, we could just be 14 days away from reaching the 1,000 confirmed COVID 19 cases level.

What would be the implication of this to the average Metro Manila citizen? One, the National Capital Region health care delivery system could be SWAMPED with cases. Some hospitals, as already implemented by the Philippine Heart Center, may not take in new admissions. More hospitals may limit admissions. The idea of total closure is beyond imagination because at a minimum, patients already admitted would be allowed to heal in the normal course of their disease and would be discharged upon completion of the medical treatment plan. Only a MAJOR BREAK in protocol wherein all confined patients would have a high risk of getting infected with the corona virus would an emergency transfer of all patients to other facilities be done. This would happen when patients previously admitted for other conditions (normal delivery, elective surgery and other non-respiratory admissions) SUDDENLY and UNEXPECTEDLY develop flu like symptoms with the more serious cases testing POSITIVE for COVID 19. This could only mean that those patients got the COVID 19 during their hospital stay for non-COVID infirmities. A massive transfer of these patients would also put other hospitals at risk thus possibly crippling the hospital operations of more health facilities.

At this time Metro Manila is now on COMMUNITY QUARANTINE which would hopefully prevent, reduce or at least delay the rate of transmission of the dreaded disease. It may take at least a week or two before we may see the full (hopefully positive) effect of this emergency measure. Thus Metro Manila is in a RACE against TIME, meaning we are all banking on the community quarantine to FREEZE the spread at the same time that we know that there could be dozens (or, heaven forbid hundreds) of positive cases (but still undetected) that could be spreading COVID 19 at this very minute and the cases would only manifest in a week or two.


A new source of test kits from the University of the Philippines is in the works and would increase the number of test kits necessary to diagnose every individual with the COVID 19 disease.

Vaccines are being tested which would be the true game changer in stopping the spread of COVID 19. Various medicines are also being tried out (mainly those that have shown stopping power against the other corona viruses).


The Department of Health confirmed 140 COVID 19 cases with 11 deaths. DOH called on the public to be vigilant and practice personal preventive measures such as proper hand hygiene, social distancing, and cough etiquette.

DOH also called on people to refrain from visiting public places and/or attending mass gatherings.  


COVID 19 – Mga middle class ang nakatanggap ng ayuda mula sa DILAWANG QC Mayor, bakit hindi inuna ang mga tunay na mahihirap?

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Nagumpisa na mamigay ng food packs ang Mayora ng Quezon City. Tama lang na sumunod siya sa utos ng ating Pangulo upang makatulong sa mga walang hanap buhay at doon din sa mga may trabaho ngunit hindi naman makapasok dahil sarado ang mga opisina. Batid ng lahat na marami ang isang kahig, isang tuka, lalo pa sa Quezon City kung saan tambak ang mga informal settlers. Nagtatanong nga lang ang mga netizens kung bakit tila mga bahay na may mga gate at garahe ng sasakyan ang mga nabiyayaan. Sa lipunang Pilipino kasi yung may mga bahay na ganyan ang itsura ay nabibilang na sa tinatawag na MIDDLE CLASS. Hindi ganyan ang laki at pagkagawa ng mga tahanan ng mga POOREST of the POOR. Sapagkat may hangganan naman ang kakayanan ng lungsod mamahagi ng pagkain at personal effect sa ilang daan libong taga QC, hindi ba dapat pinipili ang bibigyan at yung maaring mamatay sa gutom ang dapat unahin. Hindi rin natin alam kung ilang linggo tatagal itong COVID 19 pandemic. Sa ngayon isang buwan ang COMMUNITY QUARANTINE. Umaasa tayo na sapat na yung panahon na iyon para mapuksa ang sakuna. Ang problema ay wala tayong kasiguraduhan kung hanggang kailan tatagal ang ating Kalbaryo (na malapit na ang Mahal na Araw), kaya dapat hinayhinay sa pagmudmod ng mahalagang pagkain. Piliin mabuti ang pagbibigyan sapagkat yun namang may pambili ng pagkain ay kayang tustusan ang mga sarili nila. Yun talagang walangwala ang dapat tutukan.

COVID 19 – 627 die in a single day in Italy, country total cases now at 47,000 with 4,032 deaths

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Coronavirus live updates: 627 die in a single day in Italy

Largest daily jump in Italy’s death toll, as WHO warns the world’s youth they are not invincible against COVID-19.

by Ted Regencia, Farah Najjar & Saba Aziz (Al Jazeera)

March 21, 2020
The death toll from the new coronavirus has surpassed 5,000 in Europe – the new epicentre of the pandemic – as Italy, Germany and Spain reported a steep rise in infections.

Italy announced 627 more deaths on Friday, the biggest day-to-day increase in the country’s four-week epidemic, a day after surpassing China’s death toll. The total number of deaths in Italy reached 4,032.

More than 209,000 people have been infected by the coronavirus globally and more than 8,700 have died, according to the World Health Organization. 

At least 87,000 have recovered from COVID-19, according to data collected by the Johns Hopkins University in the United States. JHU’s global death toll has surpassed 10,000. 

COVID 19 – DILAWANG QC Mayor nakatuon na sa halalang lokal ng 2022

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Vico Sotto po ang pangalan ng Pasig Mayor pero hindi ninyo mababasa ang pangalan niya sa mga relief packs ng kanyang lungsod sapagkat alam na nga mga constituents niya kung sino siya. Iba naman sa Quezon City kung saan nakaukit na sa mga gusali at iba pang mga istruktura ang pangalang Belmonte (tatay ng kasalukuyang mayora ay matagal ding alkalde at kinatawan, iba pa ang marami nilang mga kamaganak na nakapwesto ngayon o nuong nakaraang mga panahon). GALAWANG DILAWAN (PAEPAL) pa rin sa Quezon City sa gitna ng pinakamaraming kaso ng COVID 19 sa buong Metro Manila. 31 na ang mga kaso sa QC, 217 naman sa buong Pilipinas. Batay sa sakuna at COMMUNITY QUARANTINE, ipinagutos ni Pangulong Duterte na tulungan ng mga lokal na pamahalaan ang hindi makapasok sa trabaho at ang mga walang pambili ng pagkain.

Bakit kaya sa mga lungsod na MAGALING ang nagpapalakad kagaya nila Isko Moreno ng Maynila, Vico Sotto ng Pasig at Francis Zamora ng San Juan, HINDI KAILANGAN UMEPAL? Simple lang ang sagot dyan. Sapagkat mga makatao sila at todo buhos ng tulong sa kanilang mga sinasakupang barangay at komunidad, alam na ng mga mamamayan ang kahalagahan ng mga pinuno nila. Sa kabilang dako naman kagaya ng Quezon City kung saan INSECURE (dahil palpak) ang kanilang mayora Joy ng Belmonte DYNASTY, dapat ilagay ang pangalan niya sa mga naglalakihang tarpaulin at maski sa mga supot, sako at mga pinaglalagyan ng mga tulong pagkain at kagamitang personal (sabon, alcohol at face mask) para TUMATAK sa isipan ng mga botante ang isusulat nilang pangalan (o iitiman ang bilog) sa BALOTA sa 2022.

‘We are very scared’: With depleting resources, private hospitals appeal for designated COVID-19 facilities

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MANILA, Philippines — Private hospitals called on the national government and the Department of Health to designate hospitals for patients infected with the new coronavirus as the growing health crisis overwhelm healthcare facilities in the Philippines.

Eleven hospital administrators said an “alarming” number of health workers are under 14-day quarantine, while the number of persons under investigation flocking their emergency rooms is increasing every day.

Regular rooms have been converted into isolation areas, leaving less for non-COVID-19 high-risk patients and even intensive care unit rooms are getting full, they added.

The Philippines reported 217 COVID-19 infections, with 17 deaths. The number of PUIs stood at 380, while the count for persons under monitoring was at 4,929 as of Thursday.

“We are urgently appealing for DOH to mobilize this plan, challenging as it may be, but which the private hospitals are willing and ready to facilitate.”

Lung Center as COVID-19 hospital?

Earlier, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said the agency is looking at the possibility of making the Philippine Lung Center of the Philippines as a designated hospital for COVID-19-infected individuals.

But he said this will be hard at the moment since there are a lot of non-COVID-19 patients who are still being treated at the Lung Center.

The hospital heads stressed the execution of the plan will allow the concentration of resources, speedy patient processing and efficient protocol execution.

“With the COVID-19 hospital(s) in place, the other institutions can then focus on the bigger population who need to be treated for the rest of the other conditions other than the COVID-19 infection,” they said, adding they are ready to take in the non-COVID-19 patients of the designated COVID-19 hospitals.

‘We are scared’

This unprecedented and growing medical crisis creates a shortage of supplies, personal protective equipment, ICUs and healthcare workers.

“The panic is escalating, mortality is increasing, our supplies of PPEs are running short, our frontline staff are increasingly getting depleted as more of them are quarantined or physically and emotionally exhausted, and a number of our medical colleagues are already hooked to respirators fighting for their lives in various ICUS,” the hospital chiefs said.

They added: “We have every reason to be scared; we are, indeed, very scared because we feel that we are on our own to face our countrymen in dire need of help.”

The signatories included hospitals that have taken in a large proportion of cases found positive for COVID-10, namely Cardinal Santos Medical Center, Makati Medical Center, The Medical City and St. Luke’s Medical Center.

Also signing the appeal were Adventist Medical Center, Asian Hospital Medical Center, Fatima University Medical Center, Manila Doctors Hospital, Medical Center Manila, Our Lady of Lourdes Hospital and the University of the East Ramon Magsaysay Medical Center.

Gaea Katreena Cabico (Philstar)

March 19, 2020

Italy (3405) overtakes China (3245) in COVID 19 deaths

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Italy death toll overtakes China with 3,405 deaths from virus

The Guardian

March 19, 2020

DILAWANG KSP Leni at EPAL Joy – Sila na yung maraming satsat, sila din yung naglagay ng mga pangalan nila sa mga tarp at giveaway

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Matapos nagsabi ang dalawang DILWAN na kulang daw sa CLARITY at nagresultan lang daw sa KAGULUHAN (CONFUSION) ang mga utos ni Pangulong Duterte ukol sa SOCIAL DISTANCING at COMMUNITY QUARANTINE, si Bise President Leni Robredo ay nagpagawa naman ng mga mamalaking tarpaulin upang isigaw sa buong mundo ang kaniyang kontribusyon sa kasalukuyang kalamidad. Eto namang Punong Abala ng Lungsog Quezon na si Joy Belmonte ay namimigay ng face mask at alcohol na nakalagay naman sa bag na may nakasulat na pangalan niya. Tila feeling 2022 na ang dalawa, yun lang 2 taon pa yon. Wala namang masama na maalala sila ng mga botante sa susunod na halalan.

EPAL at TRAPO talaga ang dalawa. Sana maparusahan sila ng mga mamamayan sa 2022.


  • Cheyenne List Well, Im still thankful Leni isnt our President 
  • Felipe Garcia Talacay Ready na po. Nagpapaprint pa!
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  • Christian Neil Jumantoc Jopson Sana total lockdown na! Para tapus na ang problema wala na lalabas ng bahay ang susuway pamumultahin! At Bahala na ang local goverment gagawa ng trabahu para sa nasasakupan nila . Para may silbe naman sila! Mga officials na mag dododoortodoor para sa mga pantawid gutom natin hanggang matapos ang lockdown! Ang tatamad tamad sa pwesto ay walang alinlangang tanggalin agad ng ating mahal na pangulo! 👊👊👊


  • Sheila Hidalgo Francisco Lam nyo guys sa nxt election. 👎👎👎


  • Jessie Abellar Brains of the same Leaders, PALPAK together.
  • Raegian Sarabia iba tlaga silang magisip,kasi wala silang isip.ha3,mga utak lugaw..😂
  • Jon Espiritu Domingo vice natin walng kwenta
  • Marc Maglantay nung pumutok ung covid 19 sa china gusto agad ni pangulo total ban pag labas at pag pasok sa china,pero may mga komontra at ngaun laganap na sa pinas ung epedimya sana panagutin ung mga tumutol dito!!
  • Jonathan Andes Vidanes Ang alamat ng dalawang BOBO, nung unang panahon my dalawang taung di mrunong umintindi khit simpleng instruction lng and the rest is history ahahaha
  • Maribel Lumakin Utak talangka kasi ang mga yan…imbes na ang isipin kung paano nila tutulungan ang bansang Pilipinas eh wala silang iniisip kung di batikusin ang Pangulo ng Pilipinas…buwisit kayo…
  • Eduardo Dabay Nasusulat din sa bible yan..MA’s magaling mag isip ng kabuktutan ang masasama ..kesa sa mabuti .Devil
  • Bancor Barrameda Dapat nag artista na Lang mga yan,bakit pa kaya pumasok sa pulitika na wala nman laman mga utak haayyss Marasapa 😝😝😝
  • Jeffrey Delmo mga voters mag isip-isip na kayo hayan na ang mga hinalal ng tao na walang kwenta pundo lang ang nais ss crisis na ito d2 natin makita ang tunay na naglilingkod sa tao at sa bayan.
  • Ramos Mark Harold Oh qc next election lm nyo dpat mtlino leader at my mlskt d porket anak ng dting mayor iboboto nyo dhil d nman cla mgkapareho ng tatay nya….😂😂😂😂
  • Jessa Oli Capariño District 2 Quezon city location payatas walang kahit na anu mang tulong maoa baranggay man o mayor. Naka extreme lockdown ang payatas simula kahapon 😠😠😠
  • Amor S. Mark Anthony tagilid ang paniniwla at pinaniniwlaan…kht kylan walang kapayapaan sa bansa kng sila ulit ang ating iluluklok sa bayan…
    Adrian Flores Makatulong Ng kaunti hehengi Ng ayuda sa national gov. Bakit mga madam asan pundo nyo. Puro Kasi kayu ngawa Ng ngawa wla namang gawa. D kayu mahiya sa presidente Ayan oh nag papakita sa kalsada d takot mamatay .Kayu wla Ng nagawa dada pa Ng dada.
  • Carlito Temprosa Highlighted pa ng ABS na nagka loob ng Libreng Sakay ito si Luga este Lugaw, samantalang sasakya ng Gobyerno ang gamit, masyadong namumulitika. Buset…
  • Cristino Umali Sila ang mga tunay na deadly virus na mahirap puksain dhil galing sila ke SATANAS!!!!!
  • Leovic Espinosa Bobadilla Huwag bibig ang pinakikilos ,,,galawgalaw din pag my time,,mayora at VP,,,utak paganahin please!!!
  • Rommel Diaz De Vera Puro mga nakapagaral at nagsiagtapos mga yan pero parang pahid lang ang utak
  • Gabby Manguray Ang hina ng utak ng mga ito
  • Mar Fax Eirfaxleb Inihalal pa kasi yang mukhang saging yung boses parang nasa cartoons magsalita daig pa ang mga grade 1 kung pa presscon
  • Melvin Cachuela Use your common sense!Puro kase pa Epal ang alam!
  • Roy Jamilla kht d cguro nakapagaral madali intindihin at unawain ng cnbi ng gobyerno e,,ei bkt kea d nila maintindihan,?db nakapagaral kayo?o ayaw nyo lng talaga sumunod sa utos ng pangulo?pasaway din talaga kayo eh,,
  • Bro Neks Dhor Mga dilawan lang naman ang lack of understanding😂😂😂🇵🇭👊
  • Jerome K Poyaoan well gagawa nanaman sila ng kwento mas okay nga sila muna magka coronavirus tutal matagal na silang virus kaya Yng mga uto uto na niniwala sa kanila magisp kayo kse sila Mas uunahin muna nila sarili nila bago Bayan
  • Roberto Mayormita Otak bulinaw ng mga yan walang magawa kon di tahol ng tahol paso na nasiraan ng bait
  • Angelo James Villapando Ayan ang dalwang puro kuda kesa sa gawa at tulong mga na alog na ang utak tsktsk puro pambabatikos sa presidente mga BOBO!!!👊👊👊👊
  • Joel Gastardo yang DALAWANG iyan mga walang kwenta utak bulinaw sa bisaya.hangang ngayon WALA pang aksyon yang MAYORA na yan dito sa QUEZON CITY.
  • Florencio Valencia HNP din yata c joy belmonte nung tumakbo sya nung election
  • Jonathan Raganit Doniego Ang masipag lng sa kanila mga bunganga lang ng mga yan gamit nilang pera sa goverment din paggaling sa bulsa ng mga yan alam na
  • Mugiwara No Luffy Silang dalawa lang ang hindi nalinawan..ang lalabo ksi sobrang labo malapit ng mawala at hindi na makikita.
  • Nahtanoj Osevone Dapat magfussion teknik nlang sila dalawa.. LENOY ROBMONTE ang gagaling nyu.. para.lumakas ng konti power nyu. Nyahaha
  • Ivan Flores qc po ako,si joy walang wala sa mga mayors na bago isko of manila sotto of pasig and zamora of san juan saladu ako sa inyo mayor kc nmin apakabobo
  • Shirley Escabarte Romano Mga yellowshit magulo takbo ng utok!
  • Jo Dala kahit kelan yan naman talaga ang sakona sa bansa ang luagaw rubot na yan pate na mga kasama nya sabagay di naman yan totoong vise eh fake ka talaga dahil kong hindi eh makipagtulongan ka kay tatay digong layas ka nanga👊👊👊👊👊
  • Leizle Dela Torre Lack of clarity kc nagbingibingihan lng kayo, utak dilawan.
  • Guidotti Esquivel Go Naku sana sa 2022 piliin ng mga taga QC ang tunay na iboboto nila.
  • Andrew Urmeneta Ongue Only in d philippines!!sa gitna ng krisis pulitika pa rin nsa isip ng mga p***** i**** mga to!!
  • Lynjore Castillano Mga ka DDS hnd na natin pa cla ebalik sa pang guberno ha ngaon 2022 mag ka esa na tayu mga ka DDS ha wla tayung eboto na mga dilawan pa dvh mga ka DDS.
  • Evelito Januyan Baritua Tandaan mga mukhang yan nakakasuka kitakits nlng s election mga epal
  • Marlon Sumampong Wlang kwnta yan bakit nyo binoto utak tae mg isip
  • Jong Arancon Matterig kla kba pag wlang gnawa mga yan pra plitan n agad.
  • Carlito Temprosa Gawin panawagan, LENI RESIGN NOW…
  • Alexander Pagarita malinaw na kung sino talaga ang nararapat sa posisyon.
    Kinn Bug-os Mga utak ipis
    Ellis Melencio Sayang lang b0t0 sa kanila ng ta0ng bayan! Sa susun0d na halalan hindi na sila mananal0. Pur0 pr0paganda lang alam nila gawin, sa halip na tumul0ng at umisip ng sul0sy0n sa pr0blema ng sambayanan..
  • Carter Eman Nagkamali ang taong bayan sa pagpili sa kanila para maging leader.
  • AL Olidan Dati pa yang mayor ng QC na umopo…walang kwenta!!
  • Acero Nevoj Well humihingi daw ng tulong sa government si mayor ng QC.para next monht daw eh gang ngayon wala pa ngang nag ikot at namigay ng tulong next monht na agad iniisip.
  • Cristy Balita Bkit dpa tong 2 to ang magka positive ng maranasan nman nla ang kalbaryo ng positive sa ncov
  • Yhuki Nathsumi Paubos n dw budgets.. Nd nmn lahat nbibigyan.. Mrmi. Ata kcing dilawan jan mas prio cla.. Pagpasyensyhan nyo na
  • Ismael Borlado Hwag nyo na kontrahin, alam naman na ng taong bayan kung ano meron sapagkatao nila bobo at tanga nalng ang boboto sa kanila
  • Yhuki Nathsumi Si aling joy panay lang pa presscon..
  • Xiem Carballo Obob😂
  • Armando Flores Hahahaha!
  • JonMarinas Lachica DiLawan Utak at isip patae Tae😂😂😂
  • Jon Espiritu Domingo kung c roxas ang presedente laganap ang kasamaan
  • Annoor Aragon Hehe panira p more
  • Shane De Vera Solis Babalong Sotto is dilawan..
  • Bobby D. Hoyle Mga salot
  • Rj Laf Junalvin Ballers trapoesssssssssssssssssssssss…………….
  • Stef Rafbros Waste of time.. Nonsense.. Incompetent
  • John Mar Gamit Last term nyo na yan sa government..
  • Lyro Piba Mga epal
  • Pusong Sabungero Boboo walang utak
  • Rolly Margate Malones talagang bobo kalang..
  • Carlito Temprosa LENI RESIGN NOW…
  • Chemhel Animer MGA BOBO….
  • パラボイ エンポイ Mahirap ang kulang sa kasanayan mapapahamak ang mamayan nasasakupan
  • Leon Guerero ang dalawng,bobo
  • Amado Jr Fernando mahirap umintindi ang ayaw at walang pang intindi
  • Roger So Tiu Bulsa pa more
  • Antonio Vallejo ksp ang dalawang yan…Kulang Sa Paalaala😂😂😂
  • Alma Bokingo Etcubanez Mag sama sama kayo
    19 leni joy epal