Fearless Forecast: Duterte 38% Win, Grace 27% at Second

Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte would be the next Philippine President, winning by 4 million votes, as predicted by Google, Facebook and 7 – 11 convenience stores.

It is all over but the counting. Duterte will get 38% of the total votes cast with 14 million votes. Grace Poe will settle for second with 10 million votes representing 27%. Vice President Binay will get 6 million votes representing 17% while perpetual poll survey tail-ender Mar Roxas will get 5 million votes and 15%.

The results would put traditional survey firms to shame since they predict on the basis of small sample sizes (1,200 or 1,800 or 2,400 or 4,000 or 5,200) and justifying their results because of their use of scientific methods. However, in the age of the Internet and social media, resorting to tiny sample sizes would inevitably lead to less than accurate predictions. The way to go should be to compile data the way Google, Facebook and, in a less precise way, 7 – 11, generate huge numbers. The so-called advantage of the traditional polling is its methodology of choosing respondents but this system falls flat on its face due to extremely small sample sizes (in the few thousands). Gathering data from MILLIONS of people will obviously increase the ACCURACY of the projected election results. None of the STUPID plus or minus 2% blah blah which effectively puts survey results in the STATISTICAL TIE territory whenever candidates are bunched up and within striking distance of each other. When MILLIONS of respondents are polled, the plus or minus margin of error is reduced to an INSIGNIFICANT number, thus there will be no epidemic of STATISTICAL TIES which is our common fare (until Duterte pulled away).

Actually, we should attribute more intelligence to our candidates. Grace Poe said “habang may buhay, may pagasa” (there is hope as long as one is still alive). That comment does not exude a great chance at victory. At its best, it means that she knows that she is behind and must work double time to catch up. VP Binay said he would win by 4 million votes. Obviously he has access to a wider network of troops on the ground who are in a better position to assess the national pulse. In truth, he is in the know that the 2016 Presidential election WINNER would win by 4 MILLION votes. He just twisted the story a little bit to make it appear as if HE would be the winner when DEEP IN HIS HEART, he already knows that VICTORY will not be his. He deliberately presented a different winner (himself) so as not to DEMORALIZE his supporters. Conceding DEFEAT at this early stage would PANIC his campaign since it would be everyone to himself (jumping ship time, junking season). Mar Roxas, on the other hand, was already THANKING his supporters at Club Filipino. Detractors said it was a LOYALTY CHECK but it looked more like a LAST HURRAH, giving it the good old Ateneo High School ONE BIG FIGHT ( Win or lose, this the school we choose). It was Mar’s way of saying that there is still (political) life after two consecutive DEFEATS (for VP in 2010 and  an impending one for President in 2016). In a public statement, Presidential candidate Mar Roxas stated that he would be the Flavor of the Month in May 2016 (meaning he will FINALLY win, not just a survey but the election) which could mean he is banking on a MIRACLE (of the Hocus PCOS type?) or related DIVINE INTERVENTION of the Deus ex machina type (this phrase was taken up in his Ateneo High School Second Year English Literature classbiopic duterte). In other words, Mar Roxas insiders already know the score which is why they are holding back the release of funds. Anyway, less than 20 days before the elections, this blog is already CALLING the LANDSLIDE winner and that is Davao City Mayor Duterte. CHANGE IS COMING. Mabuhay ang Pilipinas!

#Duterte2016 #MarRoxas #GracePoe #JojoBinay #Halalan2016 #PhilippineElections2016

 

 

 

51 thoughts on “Fearless Forecast: Duterte 38% Win, Grace 27% at Second

  1. We are looking forward for a real CHANGE in the country’s miserable status due to drugs and severe corruption in the goverment..We firmly believe that Mayor Rodrigo Duterte can give us GOOD GOVERNANCE…so DUTERTE sa TOTOONG PAGBABAGO!!!

  2. Tama na hinog ng mga tao sa kabobola at pangako panahon na talaga para naman ang buong pinas makaranas na pantay pantay ang pamamalakad ng Hustisya wlang padreno padreno kya daming tiwalag sa pamunuan..dina kailangan ang botohan malinaw c DUTERTE NA ang presidente lagot ang me mga kaso na plunder at abusado noong nanongkulan sa adm.aquino dapat
    mahalongkat at bigyan ng parusa bwat kasalanan nila BILANG na TALAGA ANG ARAW ninyo mapagasamantala.

  3. well well well Duterte has the capacity to win why because he able to catch the heart of the people by his true deeds and truest feelings amidst of all his detractors, i am 101% sure he will be our next President of the Phillippine Republic

    • Yes, he will win.. let us pray all together for his Victory!!! Mabuhay President Rodrigo Duterte..Ang Pagkabuhay na muli ng Bansang Pilipinas..!!

  4. DU30 landslide votes

  5. BUHAT ANG PASULTION.
    These guy has lots of achievements. Just dont mind his mouth.
    His mouth can’t do the work. Let this guys his hands to the cleaning for our country.
    #DUCAY2016

    • very smart answer..haha..it is action not words that do the JOB..kudos..

    • Yes, he has to lead our country becoz he is the only person who has the political will to initiate reforms in the whole rotten system of government. I know him becoz i am a dabawenya, i live all my life in davao. He is true to his commitments as our mayor. He does not even need to campaign in davao when running for mayor, after the first term and every end of term thereafter, it is the people of davao that shouts “ikaw na lang ulit mayor, wag mo kami iwan” He impose descipline with so much sense, which makes all aspect of his plans for the city put into its perspective. He has a system. He never stops planning what is good for the people of davao. He loves his people esp the poor and the marginalized. We love davao becoz of his good governance. If we follow the law and city ordinance, there is no problem. He may be fierce but behind those strong language is a caring heart. When he says it, he does it. That’s our mayor and that is Duterte.

  6. I like it duterte na

  7. am a resident of davao 4 23 yrs, since that time, i always said, THHANK U ALLAH 4 LETTING ME CHOOSE DAVAO A PLACE WHERE I CAN RETIRE, DAVAO IS PARADISE 4 ME DUE GOOD GOVERNANCE LEAD BY OUR GOOD MAYOR, NOW UPCOMING PRESIDENT!1!

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    another blogs ng duterte fans? just asking

  9. Du30 is unstoppable!

  10. DUTERTE ,sya ang pinakamaraming suportes.wag lang dayain

  11. gutom na gutom na kami sa totoong pagbabago…sawang’sawa na kami sa bulok na sistema ng ating bansa….akala nga namin na ganito nalang talaga ang pilipinas,,,,nakitaan kami ng pag’asa ng may isang tao namay tunay na may malasakit sa mamamayang pilipino…….hahaha…natatawa lang ako,,,akala ko pinabayaan na ng Panginoon na na sa langit ang bansa natin……DALAYGON ANG DIYOS!!! THANK GOD…!!! GOD BLESS PILIPILNAS!!!

  12. very obvious naman talaga na c DU30 ang next pres. daya hocus pcos na lang ang kalaban.

  13. solid Du30 kami….. marami pa syang magagawa para sa bayan para sa buong pilipinas…. Du30 in 2016

  14. I would rather go to a dirty mouth than to a dirty government….DUTERTE FOR PRESIDENT

  15. ……. true – a huge change is coming – and done already! ….. bless you Pres. Duterte. ……..

  16. Inspiring analysis for Duterte supporters as we are.

  17. I will give a chance for Duterte to make changes to our country because people have been fed up with the traditional politicians who loves to make “pogi points” just to be popular. I will give my vote to DUTERTE on May 9, 2016.

  18. DUTERTE – CAYETANO!!!

  19. Tuloy ang pag babago Rodrigo Roa Duterte.

  20. duterte is the man. this is the time that filipinos will be emancipated from oppressions and slavery from the few oligarch of our country who dictated the affairs of government. Time to go take a long vacation in the philippines and enjoy the true victory of our countrymen.

  21. VOTE STRAIGHT—DUTERTE-CAYETANO 2016 for smooth governance & attain full success of Duterte’s platform without hitches.

  22. Darating na ang tamang panahon! Duterte ang bagong pagasa ng Bayan! Mahabang panahon kaming lahat naghintay sa iyo. Panahon na ng taong Bayan! Duterte sa lahat ng buhay Pilipino!

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  24. Duterte na talaga ang first President ng Federal Republic of the Philippines…

  25. I am very happy, change is coming! Keep on fighting, it will be a landslide win nonetheless.

  26. 20% or less for Poe and 40% for Mayor Duterte more or less and the rest can be divided among Roxas, Binay and Santiago. The way I see it.

  27. Duterte for real change

  28. It’s the problem of having a multi-party system, we have a minority President winning only less than 50% of the total electorates

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  31. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I CAN SAY…I LOVE MY COUNTRY AND PROUD ABOUT IT WHY? BECAUSE THIS MAN (MAYOR DUTERTE) PUMP MY DEAD HEART FOR A LONG TIME. I DO BELIEVE THIS KIND OF ELECTION IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT FROM OTHERS, THIS ELECTION IS A CRY FOR REAL CHANGE. PEOPLE ARE TIRED OF USELESS AND FAILED PROMISES FROM THE GOVERNMENT. THIS SO CALLED BIG-SHOTS IN THE GOVERNMENT ARE FEASTING THE RICHNESS OF THE COUNTRY, SELLING THEIR OWN PEOPLE TO OTHER NATIONS LIKE (OFW) THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY FOR GREENER PASTURE, SOME CAME BACK DEAD, RAPE, AND KILLED THEY THINK THEY HAVE A BETTER LIFE OUTSIDE. AM NOT SAYING ALL (OFW) ARE TREATED THAT WAY. BUT WHAT AM SAYING, THEY SHOULD NOT GO OUTSIDE OF OUR COUNTRY, UNLESS IT WAS THEIR CHOICE TO GO. THIS PROFESSIONAL (MAGNANAKAW) POLITICIANS IN THE GOVERNMENT ARE FEASTING THE MONEY OF THE PEOPLE, AND SOME POLITICIANS ARE HAPPY WHEN A STORM COMES TO THE PHILIPPINES (LIKE YOLANDA OR OTHER CLAMITY) SO THEY CAN DIVIDE (POCKETED) THE MONEY AMONG THEMSELVES. THE VICTIMS ONLY RECEIVE A SMALL PORTION, THEY VICTIMIZED THE VICTIM ITSELF. CORRUPTIONS ARE RAMPANT EVERYWHERE, FROM THE TOP DOWN BELOW. THE RICH BECOME RICHER, THE POOR FROM BAD TO WORSE, NO EQUALITY IN THE COUNTRY…THAT’S WHY WE NEED FEDERALISM WHERE EVERYONE IS TREATED EQUAL. YOU CAN HAVE LESS, BUT YOU’RE NO BETTER THAN THE HAVE’S. NO MORE MAID (YAYA OR KATULONG). IN AMERICA…TO CLEAN YOUR HOUSE IS EXPENSIVE, TO BABYSIT YOUR KID IS EXPENSIVE, ONLY FEW CAN AFFORD IT. I BETTER STOP HERE, THERE’S SO MANY THINGS TO SAY…YES, AM BEGINNING TO LOVE MY COUNTRY AGAIN, BECAUSE OF THIS MAN MAYOR DUTERTE. GOD BLESS YOU ALL…

  32. Duterte Cayetano na tayong lahat!!

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  37. Its mot a landslide if 34%…..actually its 65%, and 35% pinaglalabanan nang iba, kasama na undecided.
    Thats pretty much accurate. #DuterteCayetano
    The real change. Federal Republic of the Philippines!

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  42. Duterte will surely get more than 40%!!!

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